Dubai, UAE – May 13, 2025 – Base oil prices in the United Arab Emirates are anticipated to decrease in May 2025, reversing a period of stability seen throughout April. This expected downturn is primarily attributed to the recent imposition of significant anti-dumping duties by the UK government on finished lubricant imports originating from the UAE.
The UK has implemented a substantial 59.40% anti-dumping duty on the majority of finished lubricants, notably downstream engine oils and hydraulic fluids, imported from the UAE. Market analysts predict that this measure will severely restrict the volume of these products being shipped to the UK, a key export market for UAE-based lubricant manufacturers.
Consequently, lubricant companies within the UAE that have traditionally relied on the UK market may face a surplus of finished lubricants domestically. This potential oversupply of engine oils and hydraulic fluids within the UAE is expected to exert downward pressure on the prices of these finished products.
Industry sources suggest that this downward pressure on finished lubricant pricing will likely cascade down to the base oil market, leading to reduced demand from local blenders and, subsequently, lower base oil prices in the UAE throughout May 2025.
This anticipated price decline follows a period of steady base oil prices in the UAE during April 2025. This stability was maintained despite some supply-side pressures, including planned maintenance at Luberef’s Group I and Group II plants in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, which limited spot sales. Additionally, concerns regarding potential supply chain disruptions due to Houthi attacks in the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait added to the uncertainty. However, these factors were counterbalanced by a decrease in demand for downstream lubricants following the end of Ramadan and the Eid-al-Fitr holidays.
While the short-term outlook points towards a price decrease in May, the long-term growth prospects for the UAE base oil market remain positive, driven by the region’s expanding industrial and automotive sectors. However, the immediate impact of the UK’s anti-dumping duties is set to be a key factor influencing price dynamics in the coming weeks.
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